Friday, 5 June 2009

The winner of Princes Ward by election is Mark Harrison

It has just emerged that Mark Harrison has won the Princes Ward by-election with 1726 votes. Congratulations to you and your party! The final count (see below) does not indicate a particularly cloe race, and Labour have performed very well in the by-election.

Here at Lurking about SE11, we'll obviously be keeping a close eye on all Princes Ward councillor contributions over the next year, so you can be sure that you'll all have your work cut out for you.

I hope some of the candidates that were unsuccessful will stand again. This year will be a good dry run for next year's local elections!

Breakdown of results:

Labour - 1726 (40.69% of votes)
Lib Dem - 1396 (32.9% of votes)
Conservative - 707 (16.67% of votes)
Green - 320 (7.5% of votes)
English Democrat - 93 (2.19% of votes)

Total Votes = 4242 (I've just added the above results. I doubt that includes spoiled papers)

The turnout was apparently an amazing 43% (which I'm assuming is for the local elections, rather than the European ones, but I'm not sure).

However... not entirely sure how the figures work...

If we assume that 4242 votes = 43% of Princes Ward, then 9865 votes would have been 100% of Princes Ward and a full turn out. That's clearly incorrect beause the 2001 census suggests that the population of Princes Ward was 11,636, and it must have risen since then because there has been a certain amount of development in the area!

So, let's assume that 2% of the ballot papers were spoiled.
Instead we will posit that 4242 votes = only 41% of Princes Ward.
That would make 100% of the vote be 10346, which is still hugely underneath what I would assume the population figure to be.

So... assume that 5% of the ballot papers were spoiled...
4242 votes = 38% of Princes Ward
That means 100% of the vote would be 11,163 (which is clearly still under par for local population figures)...

I'll have to wait to hear how many votes were actually cast to figure out whether there were a huge percentage of spoiled papers or whether 43% is too high an estimate.

Edit: One anonymous contributor has just remarked that Princes Ward has approx 10,000 registered voters (I had forgotten under 18s), so it looks as though the figure of 2% spoiled ballot papers is about right.

In any case, an approximate 43% turnout is very positive for local democracy, so well done to everybody who voted, went to hustings, spoke to their neighbours, canvassed for their party and contributed to the debate!

11 comments:

Sid Boggle said...

I suppose the local party apparatchiks will be grooming their next 'second coming' to replace Steve Morgan, who I assume will stand down next year so he can fight Orpington.

Set your bullshit radars to maximum and watch for a leaflet through your letterbox...

Anonymous said...

Under 18's donlt get to vote - and some adults just don;t register. There are almost exactly 10,000 registered voters in Prince's.

And congratulations to Mark Harrison, who is a thoroughly nice man. But he still looks about twelve... :-)

Thank God there will be no more leaflets... said...

Sid Boggle, why on earth would Steve Morgan stand down? He knows very well he will come in third in Orpington, he is essentially a paper candidate, I doubt he'll even visit Orpington much.

Only a matter of hours before the sore losers began to express themselves...

Chris K said...

Not every adult over 18 is on the electoral register. That's the simple explanation.

Cllr Steve Morgan said...

Sid - Thanks for your view of my political future. I really am delighted that you think I am such a great campaigner that I will go to Orpington and take the Labour Party from 4,914 votes to over 26,718 votes to become the next MP.

Thank God there will be no more leaflets - I was born and grew up in Orpington and visit regularly to see my Mum as well as to do a bit of campaigning.

It really is a shame when people hear/read something, decide they know what the truth is and then start commenting on it without even bothering to take a few minutes ot check the facts first.

Cllr Steve Morgan

Three wheeled one said...

I don't suppose it will make too much difference if I request a little civility, will it?

Disagreement with any individual or party does not necessarily require us to be uncharitable! Please be nice... I don't want to have to disable anonymous posting.

Martin said...

The residents of Princes Ward have spoken! Congratulations to
Mark Harrision!

Martin

Anonymous said...

I think it is amusing that Labour are making a statement about people making assumptions. An entire campaign was based on that.

I had campaigners knocking on my door on Thursday telling me to go and vote or else! They were saying he Lib Dem had moved to Whitstable.

Rich indeed!

Even Kate Hoey thought Labour's campaign was based on lies!

Roll on next year - a full collapse of the ALMO & it failing to get its necessary 2* rating by September, the Housing Revenue Account will not balance again on March 31st (as it has to!) and rents will go up again, the discount that we know Mark had a chat with his pal Margaret Beckett about will not kick in this month - rather at the end of September (another incorrect campaign message) , Lillian Baylis site will have been sold to the All Nations Church without resident and community consultation (Mark has already admitted that he signed that one off when he was on the board!) and Bankruptcy of Lambeth by a Labour council will be the main campaing areas.

God help us!

It will be a vicious campaign again no doubt... dirty tactics and certain parties avoiding the issues at hand and starting a smear campaign against other candidates . Lets see what lies a on leaflets next time shall we?

Good luck in Orpington Cllr Morgan - I really mean that, but we don't want half committed representation here.

We need people who will work for us and not move to other areas to be a prospective candiate just like Sam did.

BTW - did Sam really pay the money to Steve Reed to fund the by-election campaign? Heard that form quite a few sources this past week. Guilt payments maybe?

Joseph said...

I would like to thank those who voted Green in this election and assure everyone that I will not be moving away. I continue to work in Lambeth and will be standing in the general election for Vauxhall, which now only looks likely to be a few months away, such is the turmoil in the Labour government.

I agree with much of the analysis made by the Anonymous poster above and hope that the Labour councillors will be held to account next year.

Matt Edwards said...

Dear Three Wheeled One,

I need somebody to run the VoX WeB in the long term.

Would you be interested? If so, would you like to meet?

Please email me at voxwebcontact@gmail.com.

Matt Edwards said...

http://voxweb.typepad.com

Label Cloud

Blog Archive